Doug Johnson

Prognostication
Head for the Edge, Technology Connection, November 1997

• “Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.” —Popular Mechanics, 1949
• “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” —Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
• “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” —Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

Prognostication, the ability to predict the future, is a tricky business. Yet, I am fascinated by those who try, even when they are wonderfully wrong. As an elementary student, I was astounded when my copy of My Weekly Reader boldly predicted that we would one day eat burgers made of high protein insect parts or assured me that a personal helicopter would be one day fly from my garage. Cool!

My fascination with futurists continues to this day. Tofflers’ Creating a New Civilization, Naisbitt’s Global Paradox and Tapscott’s Digital Economy all sit on my shelves, read and reread. I ask classes to read Gate’s The Road Ahead and have given a copy of Perelman’s goofy, but strangely believable, School’s Out to my superintendent.

Compelling futurists are skilled at predicting trends from a few early events gathered through “environmental scanning.” A good environmental scanner reads widely, remembers well, sees connections, and then makes a prediction.

For those who would like to try environmental scanning (and perhaps a little personal prognostication), the Internet is a wonderful tool. Newsletters, customized news delivery services, intelligent agents, and now “push” technologies can put a huge compilation of events right on one’s computer desktop each morning. The challenge, like with the rest of the Internet, is not finding information sources, but finding the ones which best meet your needs.

Here’s a beginners list of news sources for educational leaders who might like to practice a little scanning. Subscription information can be found on the web pages included in the description.

• The Daily Report Card <http://www.utopia.com/mailings/reportcard/> summarizes national education news stories of general interest. Delivered to your desktop three times a week, the editors pick “big issue” topics like charter schools, desegregation, teacher training, and schools-for -profit which relate to national education goals.
• Edupage <http://www.educom.edu/web/pubs/pubHomeFrame.html> is delivered via e-mail three times a week and focuses on technology news which has an impact on education.
• ASCD Education Bulletin <http://www.ascd.org/pubs/bulletin/ebullet.html>, published biweekly, picks up national education items and also appends a list of WebWonders, new Internet resources of interest to educators.
• Scout Report <http://scout.cs.wisc.edu/scout/> reports lists of new Internet resources of interest to educators on a weekly basis. Its team of librarians and educators selects only the best.
• IAT Infobits <http://www.iat.unc.edu/infobits/infobits.html> is published once a month with technology news items with a post-secondary focus. Lots of links to other sites.
  
  • TidBITS <http://www.tidbits.com/> and WinNews <enews@microsoft.nwnet.com> regularly bring the reader up-to-date news, tips and reviews on the worlds of Macintosh computing and the Windows operating system (respectively).
  • Newbot <http://www.wired.com/newbot/> is an “intelligent” search engine which will save user-defined searches and bring back only hits on new items from news sources, the Web or newsgroups. Try _Education and Technology_ or _Internet Education_ as saved search topics.
  • PointCast <http://www.pointcast.com> is customizable “push” news service. Choose from a list of dozens of publications including CNN, Wired, Pathfinder and The Wall Street Journal. From within each of those sources, indicate the specific topics in which you have an interest.
  • Mercury Mail <http://www.merc.com> is another customizable news feed. This time the news sheet comes directly to your e-mail box on a daily basis. Not only can you get news, weather and sports, this service will send you an e-mail reminder of personal events.
  • Amazon.com <http://www.amazon.com> an on-line bookstore offers to send interested readers notices when there is a new publication on a particular subject or by a favorite author.
  I am sure I have left out plenty of favorites. Let me know what you read on-line to keep current, and I’ll share your sources in future columns

So from all the scanning I do, can I offer any bold predictions? Sure, why not?

• I predict that every student will have a customized education plan, jointly created by the student, parents and teachers. Parents will be able to access progress on the plan and find activities to reinforce its objectives via the Internet.
• I predict that public schools, to survive politically, will use technology to offer alternatives to standardized test scores for reporting student achievement.
• I predict that technology will remain a tool for good teachers, not a replacement for them
• I predict machines will get easier to work with, but people won’t.

Think about the future as you fly home this evening to your supper of bee-burgers. And keep in mind Bill Gate’s prophetic words from 1981, “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”